Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Foreign exchange market
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Monday, August 24, 2009
Stock market downturn of 2002
Chinese correction
The plunge in Asian markets sent ripples through the global market as the world reacted to the 9% meltdown in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese Correction triggered drops and major unease in nearly all financial markets around the world.
After the Chinese market drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the United States dropped 416 points, or 3.29% from 12,632 to 12,216 amid fears for growth prospects, then the biggest one-day slide since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The S&P 500 saw a comparable 3.45% slide. Sell orders were made so fast that a second analysis computer had to be used, causing an instantaneous 200 point drop at one point in the Dow Industrials.
Every Generation Has Its Crash
From financing the War of 1812 to today's internet and biotechnology companies, Wall Street has played a very significant role in both the American economy and its welfare. In the 19th and early 20th century, the American economy would go through repetitive periods of boom and bust, and on numerous occasions, specific names on Wall Street would be actively involved. Figures such as Cornelius Vanderbilt, Daniel Drew, Jay Gould, J.P. and Jack Morgan in their heydays controlled vast economic fortunes, and with the touch of a hand, could bring Wall Street to its knees.
The gold corner of 1869 was such an example. With the aid of Jim Fisk and Daniel Drew, Jay Gould decided to corner the gold market of the United States. There was only one problem. The U.S. Treasury had approximately $100 million worth of gold secured at Fort Knox, and any attempt to corner the gold market would require the Treasury to stay away. Gould's vast political connections (one of whom was the President, Ulysses Grant) ensured that. By the time they had accumulated all the gold they had intended to (Gould alone bought $7 million), the premium on gold was 160%. This forced the short-sellers to cover, which stabilized the price of gold at about that price. Gould sold all his holdings at the top of the market and made a profit of $10 million. The Treasury did not intervene until several days later, and the fallout was great. Several firms on Wall Street failed, and the stock market collapsed as a result -- which in turn caused numerous brokerage firms to fail.
The panic of 1907 brought out a single savior -- not the Treasury, nor the Federal Reserve (which did not exist then), but J.P. Morgan. The stock market had a very high valuation going into 1907. From March to October, the stock market fell continuously, and in late October, the impending failure of the Knickerbocker Trust Company caused a run on its already depleted funds. The company was left to fail, but Morgan, along with other well-known bankers, provided the funds necessary (>$25 million) to prop up the other major trust institutions. At the same time, the Treasury was propping up the stock market with its own funds. When they ran out, they had to ask Morgan for help. Morgan provided a further $25 million. Without his aid, the NYSE would have to shut down.
Mathematical theory and stock market crashes
Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that there is evidence the frequency of stock market crashes follows an inverse cubic power law.This and other studies such as Prof. Didier Sornette's work suggest that stock market crashes are a sign of self-organized criticality in financial markets. In 1963, Mandelbrot proposed that instead of following a strict random walk, stock price variations executed a Lévy flight. A Lévy flight is a random walk that is occasionally disrupted by large movements. In 1995, Rosario Mantegna and Gene Stanley analyzed a million records of the S&P 500 market index, calculating the returns over a five year period.Their conclusion was that stock market returns are more volatile than a Gaussian distribution but less volatile than a Lévy flight.
Researchers continue to study this theory, particularly using computer simulation of crowd behaviour, and the applicability of models to reproduce crash-like phenomena.
France
United States
There are three thresholds each of which represents different level of decline in terms of points in Dow Jones industrial average.
In the event where threshold 1 is breached, the first halt is triggered. If that point is reached before 2 p.m., the market would shut down for an hour. If threshold 1 is breached between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m., the halt will last 30 minutes. No trading stops will take place if threshold 1 is breached after 2:30 p.m.
If threshold 2 is breached before 1 p.m., the market would close for two hours. If such a decline took place between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m., there would be a one-hour pause. The market would close for the day if stocks sank to that level after 2 p.m.
In the event where threshold 3 is breached, the market would close for the day, regardless of the time.
The thresholds are computed at the beginning of each quarter to establish a specific point value for the quarter.
For the first quarter of 2009, threshold 1 is 850 points, threshold 2 is 1700 points, and threshold 3 is 2600 points.
The rules would halt trading on the major securities and futures exchanges in a coordinated cross-market halt if the circuit breaker is enacted.The Crash of 2008
On September 16, failures of large financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure of securities of packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolved into a global crisis resulting in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of equities (stock) and commodities worldwide. The failure of banks in Iceland resulted in a devaluation of the Icelandic Krona and threatened the country with bankruptcy. Iceland was able to secure an emergency loan from the IMF in November.[6] In the United States, 15 banks failed in 2008, while several others were rescued through government intervention or acquisitions by other banks.[7] On October 11, 2008, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the world financial system was teetering on the "brink of systemic meltdown".[8]
The economic crisis caused countries to temporarily close their markets.
On October 8, the Indonesian stock market halted trading, after a 10% drop in one day.
The Times of London reported that the meltdown was being called the Crash of 2008 and older traders were comparing it with Black Monday in 1987. The fall this week of 21 percent was not as bad as the 28.3 percent fall 21 years ago. But some traders were saying it was worse. “At least then it was a short, sharp, shock on one day. This has been relentless all week.”[9]. Business Week also referred to the crisis as a "stock market crash" or the "Panic of 2008."[October 19, 1987
The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday, October 16. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. The NASDAQ Composite lost only 11.3%, not because of restraint on the part of sellers, but because the NASDAQ market system failed. Deluged with sell orders, many stocks on the NYSE faced trading halts and delays. Of the 2,257 NYSE-listed stocks, there were 195 trading delays and halts during the day.[2] The NASDAQ market fared much worse. Because of its reliance on a "market making" system that allowed market makers to withdraw from trading, liquidity in NASDAQ stocks dried up. Trading in many stocks encountered a pathological condition where the bid price for a stock exceeded the ask price. These "locked" conditions severely curtailed trading. On October 19, trading in Microsoft shares on the NASDAQ lasted a total of 54 minutes.
Wall Street Crash of 1929
On Black Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.
Stock market crash
Stock market crashes are in fact social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behavior and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions[citation needed]: a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where Price to Earnings ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.
There is no numerically specific definition of a crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. While crashes are often associated with bear markets, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987 for example did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese Nikkei bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable
Determining Value
Let's say that:
- You spend $500,000 buying the building and the equipment.
- In the first year, you spend $250,000 on supplies, food and the payroll for your employees.
- At the end of your first year, you add up all of the money you have received from customers and find that your total income is $300,000.
At the end of the second year, you bring in $325,000 and your expenses remain the same, for a net profit of $75,000. At this point, you decide that you want to sell the business. What is it worth?
How Stocks and the Stock Market Work
Obviously, stocks and the stock market are important, but you may find that you know very little about them. What is a stock? What is a stock market? Why do we need a stock market? Where does the stock come from to begin with, and why do people want to buy and sell it? If you have questions like these, then this article will open your eyes to a whole new world!
Stock Investment and Stock Trading Objectives
Over The Counter Stock Market Trading – NASDAQ
The Exchange Stock Market
The Exchange Market is a place where buyers and sellers come together to trade. The best known and largest exchange is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The NYSE is a large room with many trading posts where trades take place. Each post has a specialist who handles specific securities. He can act as a broker's broker and make commissions on the trades, or he can buy and sell out of his own account, hence, creating a market in that specific security. The NYSE is not directly involved in the actual transactions (trades) but acts as a police officer enforcing certain rules to ensure fairness.
The New York Stock Exchange sets the policies of rules and regulations and decides which stocks are eligible for listing, and which firms can become members of the exchange. The NYSE approves specialists as well. There are many restrictions on the specialists in order to make a fair marketplace.
US small business balance sheet
Personal balance sheet
Balance sheet
Stock market crosses 8,000 psychological barrier
Weekend news changed the dynamics of the Karachi stock market. Confirmation from IMF regarding the payment of second instalment, as well as new credit line approved by IMF changed the market sentiments.
Furthermore, confirmation of Baitullah Mehsud’s death has given some respite to US forces regarding the much controversial drown attacks. Somehow the security situation in the country has improved as per statement by governments’ representatives. Apart from that a much controversial figure Rehman dacoit was killed during clash with security forces in Karachi.
“These events may possibly improve law and order situation along with approval of IMF instalment can be termed as positive developments. Inflation number for the month of July can be termed as positive as core inflation along with CPI continued to fall, most probably as a result of base year effect”, expressed market expert Shahid Ali.
Ahsan Mehanti at Shehzad Chamdia Securities said that stability in rupee value, record result announcement of MCB Bank, MCB Bank acquisition of RBS and foreign interest in oil exploration scrips played a catalyst role in positive activity at the KSE.
Earlier, KSE 100-index opened in green zone, gaining 40.64 points and market crossed the 8,000 psychological mark in no time. Index closed the day at 8,082.06 points with a gain of 209.83 points on Monday.
Trading activity was very much improved as compared to the last trading session. The ready market volume stood at 185.769 million shares as compared to last trading session’s 141.140 million shares. Total trading value of the market inched up to Rs 10.814b from Rs 6.66b of last trading session.
Market capitalisation increased to Rs 2.381tr as compared to Rs 2.324tr of last session, showing a gain of Rs 57b. Out of 408 actively traded symbols at the KSE, as many as 232 gained value, at least 154 lost while the worth of the shares of 22 stocks remained unchanged.
Taxation
nvestment strategies
Additionally, many choose to invest via the index method. In this method, one holds a weighted or unweighted portfolio consisting of the entire stock market or some segment of the stock market (such as the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000). The principal aim of this strategy is to maximize diversification, minimize taxes from too frequent trading, and ride the general trend of the stock market (which, in the U.S., has averaged nearly 10%/year, compounded annually, since World War II).
New issuance
Margin buying
Short selling
Leveraged strategies
Derivative instruments
Stock market index
Crashes
There have been famous stock market crashes that have ended in the loss of billions of dollars and wealth destruction on a massive scale. An increasing number of people are involved in the stock market, especially since the social security and retirement plans are being increasingly privatized and linked to stocks and bonds and other elements of the market. There have been a number of famous stock market crashes like the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the stock market crash of 1973–4, the Black Monday of 1987, the Dot-com bubble of 2000, and the Stock Market Crash of 2008.
Irrational behavior
The behavior of the stock market
The stock market, individual investors, and financial risk
Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage the associated increased risks. Stock prices fluctuate widely, in marked contrast to the stability of (government insured) bank deposits or bonds. This is something that could affect not only the individual investor or household, but also the economy on a large scale. The following deals with some of the risks of the financial sector in general and the stock market in particular. This is certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the stock market, or have acquired other 'risky' investments (such as 'investment' property, i.e., real estate and collectables).
With each passing year, the noise level in the stock market rises. Television commentators, financial writers, analysts, and market strategists are all overtaking each other to get investors' attention. At the same time, individual investors, immersed in chat rooms and message boards, are exchanging questionable and often misleading tips. Yet, despite all this available information, investors find it increasingly difficult to profit. Stock prices skyrocket with little reason, then plummet just as quickly, and people who have turned to investing for their children's education and their own retirement become frightened. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the market, only folly.
Function and purpose
Importance of stock market
Market participants
However, corporate governance (at least in the West) has been very much adversely affected by the rise of (largely 'absentee') institutional 'owners'.
Stock market
The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion US at the beginning of October 2008. [1] The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value, [2] 11 times the size of the entire world economy. [3] The value of the derivatives market, because it is stated in terms of notional values, cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security, which traditionally refers to an actual value. Moreover, the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i.e., a derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring.). Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model, rather than an actual market price.
American Stock Exchange
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Barometer of the economy
Government capital-raising for development projects
Creating investment opportunities for small investors
Corporate governance
Profit sharing
Facilitating company growth
Mobilizing savings for investment
Raising capital for businesses
The role of stock exchanges
The First Stock Exchanges
In 11th century France the courtiers de change were concerned with managing and regulating the debts of agricultural communities on behalf of the banks. As these men also traded in debts, they could be called the first brokers.
Some stories suggest that the origins of the term "bourse" come from the Latin bursa meaning a bag because, in 13th century Bruges, the sign of a purse (or perhaps three purses), hung on the front of the house where merchants met.